By Neil Unmack
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Euro zone leaders may be trying to tweak the Greek debt swap to impose marginally deeper losses on private creditors than agreed in July. That wouldnt help Greece much, but it would stagger the pain for banks, and GreeceÂs public creditors.
GreeceÂs creditors originally agreed to a 21 percent haircut on their bonds, in the 135 billion euro swap agreed as part of the countryÂs second bailout. Euro zone officials are now contemplating a 30-to-50 percent haircut, officials told Reuters. But part of that would simply come from changing market conditions, suggesting banks may simply use a higher discount rate to value the new securities they would get in exchange for their bonds. In other words, the larger apparent haircut could be more of an accounting trick than a way to lighten GreeceÂs debt load.
The swap agreed in July used a below-market discount rate of 9 percent to value coupons on the new 30-year bonds. But yields for 30-year Greek debt have risen since July to 17 percent. Twiddle the discount rate to 15 percent, and banks losses jump to 39 percent, even though the terms of the deal havenÂt changed.
GreeceÂs budget deficit this year will be larger than forecast in July, largely because austerity is biting hard. The swap may also need tweaking to lighten GreeceÂs interest costs and cut the deficit. Cutting the interest rate offered to creditors by a full two percentage points â to 2 percent â would be a step in the right direction, increasing the haircut to some 52 percent.
But Europe seems to be hesitating to go that far. There may be advantages to a more gentle approach for both banks and politicians. Banks would stagger losses over time, taking some pain now and some later. And they would preserve the benefits of the July swap, which protects their principal by getting Greece to collateralise the new bonds with risk-free securities; this means lower losses in the future restructuring.
Euro zone governments can argue they have extracted more from bondholders, and delay the day when they have to take losses on their own loans to Greece. Moreover, Athens would still be slaving under a heavy debt load, keeping it under pressure to reform. But EuropeÂs leaders should understand that the risk of the crisis dragging on, or even getting worse increases if the debt problem isnÂt tackled for good now.
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#Europe #tempted #to #save #Greek #trauma #for #later
* Sales ex-cars, gas, building supplies up 0.6 percent* Data suggests stronger Q3 GDP than had been expectedBy Jason LangeWASHINGTON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales in
September grew at the fastest pace in seven months as consumers
shook off concerns about a weak stock market and political
gridlock, giving a bit more momentum to the economic recovery.The data, which beat economists’ expectations and eased
concerns the U.S. could slip back into recession, overshadowed
a separate report showing a surprise drop in consumer
confidence in early October.The Commerce Department said on Friday that retail sales
rose 1.1 percent in September, with strong auto purchases
providing a big boost. Sales for August and July were revised
higher as well.”Reports of the consumer’s demise have been greatly
exaggerated,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont
Securities in Stamford, Conn.U.S. stocks rose on the retail data and on growing optimism
the euro zone would be able to contain its debt crisis. Prices
for U.S. government debt fell as investors took on more risk.Consumer spending accounts for about two thirds of U.S.
economic activity, and the report suggested the economy had
more vigor over the past three months than earlier believed.Economists across Wall Street bumped up forecasts, with
Macroeconomic Advisers saying the country’s economic output
likely grew at a 2.7 percent annual rate in the third quarter,
six-tenths of a point more than its previous view.”It looks like third-quarter GDP is going to be better than
the first and second quarter combined,” said John Canally, an
investment strategist and economist for LPL Financial in
Boston.However, signs the U.S. recovery is strengthening —
growth averaged under a 1 percent pace in the first half of the
year — have not dispelled recession risks. A slowdown in
Europe, where debt-laden countries are enacting austerity
measures, could still weigh heavily on the United States.CONSUMER RESOLVEConsumer confidence plunged over the summer as a bruising
battle over the U.S. budget slammed stock prices and pushed the
nation to the brink of default.After a modest reprieve in September, consumer sentiment
for October sagged to 57.5 in the preliminary Thomson
Michigan survey for October, with
expectations dropping to its weakest level in more than 30
years.But September’s reasonable spending pace showed the crisis
of confidence might not keep shoppers out of stores.Indeed, Americans lined up on Friday to buy Apple Inc’s latest iPhone as it went on sale.”Obviously consumers are still willing to go out and shop,”
said Gary Thayer, a strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors in St.
Louis, Missouri. “If the economy takes a clear turn for the
worse we would expect sales to suffer, but at least this time
the shock to confidence has not derailed consumer spending.”Within the retail report, sales of motor vehicles and parts
rose 3.6 percent last month, the biggest gain since March 2010.
Earlier this month, data showed U.S. auto sales rose to an
annual rate of 13.1 million vehicles in September, a five-month
high.The U.S. economy took a hit earlier in the year from a
spike in gasoline prices and a March earthquake in Japan that
clogged global supply conduits, hurting auto output and sales.While car sales are now bouncing back, even excluding
autos, retail sales increased 0.6 percent in September, above
forecasts for a 0.3 percent gain.Separate reports on Friday showed higher growth in business
inventories during August — which also helps growth — as well
as an unexpected rise in import prices in September.
@7 months ago with 42 notes
#WRAPUP #3US #retail #sales #rise #economy #seen #accelerating
Feb. 24 - Anti-government militias take control of central
coastal city of Misrata after evicting forces loyal to Gaddafi.Feb. 26 - The U.N. Security Council imposes sanctions on
Gaddafi and his family, and refers the crackdown on rebels to
the International Criminal Court.Feb. 28 - EU governments approve sanctions against Gaddafi
and his closest advisers.March 5 - The rebel National Transitional Council (NTC) in
Benghazi declares itself Libya’s sole representative.March 17 - The U.N. Security Council votes to authorise a
no-fly zone over Libya and military action — to protect
civilians against Gaddafi’s army.March 19 - The first air strikes halt the advance of
Gaddafi’s forces on Benghazi and target Libya’s air defences.April 30 - A NATO missile attack on a house in Tripoli kills
Gaddafi’s youngest son and three grandchildren, his government
says.June 27 - The ICC issues arrest warrants for Gaddafi, his
son Saif al-Islam and intelligence chief Abdullah al-Senussi on
charges of crimes against humanity.Aug. 21 - Rebels enter Tripoli with little resistance.
Gaddafi makes audio addresses over state television calling on
Libyans to fight off the rebel “rats”.Aug. 23 - The rebels overrun Gaddafi’s fortified Bab
al-Aziziya compound in Tripoli, trashing the symbols of his
rule.Aug. 29 - Gaddafi’s wife, his daughter Aisha and two of his
sons enter Algeria. Aisha Gaddafi gives birth in a clinic in a
border town hours after crossing the frontier.Sept. 1 - Libya’s interim rulers meet world leaders at a
conference in Paris to discuss reshaping Libya. Gaddafi, on the
42nd anniversary of his coming to power, urges his supporters to
fight on.Sept. 8 - Interim prime minister Mahmoud Jibril arrives in
Tripoli on his first visit since it was taken by his forces.Sept. 11 - Libya startes producing oil again. Niger says
Gaddafi’s son Saadi has arrived there.Sept. 13 - Interim government chief Mustafa Abdel Jalil
makes his first speech in Tripoli to a crowd of about 10,000.Sept. 15 - France’s Nicolas Sarkozy and Britain’s David
Cameron land in Libya to a heroes’ welcome.Sept. 16 - The U.N. Security Council eases sanctions on
Libya, including on its national oil company and central bank.
The U.N. General Assembly approves a request to accredit interim
government envoys as Libya’s sole representatives at the U.N.,
effectively recognizing the NTC.Sept. 20 - U.S. President Barack Obama calls for the last of
Gaddafi’s loyalist forces to surrender as he announces the
return of the U.S. ambassador to Tripoli. Gaddafi taunts NATO in
a speech broadcast by Syrian-based Arrai television station.Sept. 21 - The interim rulers say they have captured most
of Sabha, one of three main towns where Gaddafi loyalists have
been holding out since the fall of Tripoli. Gaddafi’s birthplace
Sirte and the town of Bani Walid continue to resist.Sept. 25 - The first Libyan crude oil to be shipped in
months sails from the eastern port of Marsa el Hariga for Italy.Sept. 27 - NATO says Libya’s interim rulers have taken full
control of the country’s stockpile of chemical weapons and
nuclear material.Oct. 12 - Government fighters capture Gaddafi’s son
Mo’tassim after he tried to escape Sirte.Oct 13 - NTC forces say they have control of the whole of
Sirte except neighbourhood ‘Number Two’ where Gaddafi forces are
surrounded.
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#TIMELINELibyas #civil #war #nears #end
The all-in cost stands at 280-290 basis points, depending on
how early banks commit to the deal, one banker added.The loan, being arranged by mandated lead arrangers and
bookrunners Citi and Societe Generale , marks
Norilsk’s first syndicated loan since 2008.The deal, which is for general corporate purposes, has
launched to senior syndication and banks are being invited to
join as mandated lead arrangers. There will then follow a
general phase, a senior loans banker said.On September 30, bankers said Norilsk was looking to raise
around $3.5 billion to buy back shares. The board approved on
September 13 a buyback of 7.7 percent of its stock at $306, a
total of $4.5 billion.Norilsk could use the new deal to go towards that buyback,
but either way the firm is still looking to raise $3.5 billion
for its funding requirements, the senior loans banker added.In 2008, Norilsk signed a $1.5 billion, three-year
syndicated loan arranged and underwritten by Bank of
Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Bayerische Hypo- und Vereinsbank, Calyon,
ING, RBS, Societe Generale, Sumitomo Mitsui Finance Dublin,
UniCredit HVB and WestLB.The deal was split between a $750 million of secured
pre-export financing, a secured $550 million of revolving credit
and an unsecured $200 million of revolving credit.The secured tranches paid a margin of 85 bps over LIBOR,
while the unsecured tranche paid 100 bps.Norilsk is rated Baa2 by Moody’s, BBB- by Standard & Poor’s
and BB+ by Fitch Ratings.Norilsk Nickel declined to comment.
@7 months ago with 17 notes
#RLPCNorilsk #Nickels #$15 #bln #loan #pays #L+225 #bps